The year 2014 has proven to be one of the most diffi cult fi nancial years ever after the Second World War. The year is the link between the end of the recession of 2008 and the recovery insight for the better fi nancial year of 2015.
Economists and fi nancial experts did what can be regarded as a fi rst class job to bring out the entire world from what almost turned to a depression on our hands.
In America for instance, it was bail out. In Britain, it was qualitative easing. The simple meaning of these big words is the fact that more money was printed for the economy to recover. There were lots of interventions from various central banks across the world in terms of buying toxic assets from banks so as to provide cash for the banks to continue their operations, since the recession stripped our banks naked!
The most surprising thing is the fact that while we could say, in precise terms, what the developed countries were doing, it was very diffi cult to say what the developing countries of Nigeria and Ghana were doing. Rather than printing more money, the central banks of these countries embarked on voyages of discovery, particularly in Nigeria, hounding those who took loans from banks, as if they ate the money. Again, both in Ghana and Nigeria, way to go after the EURO BOUND borrowing billions of dollars and celebrating the ignorance of over subscription to loans. The loans we have to pay back at alarming interest rates, depicting the sovereignty of these countries as being the only guarantee for the loans. It is terrible to borrow money at that level to pay recurrent expenditure such as salaries and wages.
Ghana came out with a bogus celebration of an oil haven, borrowed 860 million dollars on the development of the oil well, even when the production capacity is almost below the investment. What followed in Ghana was some set of data saying that after China, Ghana was the fastest growing economy in the world! This was demonstrated by the borrowing of over a billion EURO at about 7% to fund the economy, using the county’s sovereignty as collateral, and the devaluation of the cedi by the market forces, exchanging one US dollar to three and half cedis, coming from an exchange rate of one dollar to one and half cedi!
Ghana lost the prestigious position of donor country to attract foreign exchange, having celebrated the status of oil producing nation when it was yet to be admitted to the membership of OPEC. It is in doubt if Ghana has three months full support funds for import to qualify clearly as a solvent country under the World Bank defi nition of solvency.
The situation in Nigeria is not better, except that Nigeria is not insolvent to the extent of not being able to provide for the import support of three mouths required by the World Bank.
The Central Bank under Sanusi performed very badly in the management of the economy. For instance, in the fi ve years audited accounts published on its web site, the Central Bank of Nigeria revalued its assets to create an impression that the bank was doing well. This is something the bank will not accept from commercial banks; revaluing their assets and allowing full revaluation value in any given year!
A diagnosis of the fi ve years account of the Central Bank under Sanusi indicated that the Federal Government of Nigeria had surplus available funds of eighty billion naira. The truth of the matter is that about sixty two billion naira of the said funds account for revaluation of assets of the Central Bank. The amount actually available for the Federal Government to spend is less than twenty billion without considering other exceptional items that do not have immediate cash value.
The mischievous will easily say that Jonathan cannot account for eighty billion naira, when the truth is that the said money is only on paper, being proceeds of revaluation of assets, of which assets were not sold so as to realise the said money.
A further review of the account in 2009 shows that the Central Bank increased her operating expenses by over 300% with over 700 billion naira, when compared to 201 billion naira of the traditional running expenses of the bank in the previous year. We are of the opinion that the running expenses of over 700billion naira in 2009 is unreasonable, considering the fact that even in 2012, the running expenses of the bank stood at 305 billion, which is still on the high side.
Nigeria has the best price for the sales of oil in the world market and the output for production was most stable at about two million barrels per day, considering the unprecedented level of stability achieved by the government in the Niger Delta area.
In the developed economy, the global reason for 2014 being the most diffi cult year was mostly the recovery period for the home equity line of credit arising from the 2008 recession. For instance, those who took mortgage before the recession in 2008 had 2014 as the cut off year (regrettably those years of pre recession were boom years that accounted for lots of credit interest, liability generation and massive risk taking). The repayment for the loans and the risk investments became more diffi cult with the loss of jobs and the collapse of the capital market. It was almost impossible to pay back the home owner equity mortgage and they did not have any option than to return the keys of their homes to the banks or for the banks to create extended mortgage at the expense of the demand for cash.
Again, the property market was at a low ebb, for most home owners found the same property bought pre-2008 below the purchase price in 2013, experiencing depreciation in prices as opposed to appreciation. The cumulative results of pre-2008 were cleared in 2014 largely. It is expected that the economic damages of 2008 will now be fully cleared in 2017, with positive signals emerging from 2015.
In the developed economies of England and America, the recovery will pick up in the second quarter. While the third quarter may show some signs of concern, the fourth quarter presents an impression that all is well.
In the developing countries, the impact of the recession will manifest due to lack of adequate preparation or proper measures put in place for managing the 2008 recession.
It will be fairly diffi cult to achieve the 5% growth target. One or two countries may move above the 5% growth rate, but it appears political insurgency may wipe off some of the gains likely to be recorded. In most developing countries that will record growth above the 5% projection, the major issue has always been the refl ection of the data on the living standards of the people.
Three events are likely to manifest from 2015 when one considers the challenges created by the recession. There are the great opportunities that came with the recession. Also, every country and government will have her destiny determined by the extent to which they can manage such events. Those events are as follows
More insurgency likely in 2015
The year appears to be one that may further manifest insurgency than any other year. It is not likely that terrorists will give up in 2015. If anything, they may advance more than the previous years. There is the need to adequately plan in the budget at every level of government for the protection of lives and property of the citizen.
The year also presents the likelihood of increased self awareness of individuals in security matters and the need to support government on matters relating to security.
There is nothing to show that we are going to war and there is nothing suggesting that we are not going to go to war.
The nature of insurgency presented by the year is not only in terms of physical use of guns. For instance, Ebola presented a kind of quiet insurgence that is capable of killing millions of people with little or no notice. The year 2015 will present this type of insurgency in addition to the usual social crises and unrest.
There will also be massive protest as the tension created by poor standard of living and the demand for right to life created by social awareness will be higher in 2015. This is in addition to religious protests and political pressures for free and fair elections.
The nature and distribution of insurgency will be different from country to country. For instance, in developing counties, it will be largely matters arising from social unrest and strange diseases, in addition to political consideration and the demand for free and fair election.
Reflections from Boko Haram indicates that there is the need to be more scientifi c, as there appears to be more indications that the group is following the guerrilla war strategy, which will require major political will to resolve. This can easily be done by a government with high level of legitimacy or improved acceptance. It is not likely that immediate provision of economic needs will satisfy Boko Haram at this point.
Most developing counties will experience more challenges from their citizens like never before and a military approach to governance is not likely to help issues. The crises will largely arise from demands for citizen rights. Governments in developing counties should also be ready to manage disasters arising from human error. (Aviation issues come to mind in this regard).
There’ll be more wealth creation in 2015
A global net growth of 3.3% has been predicted by the World Bank. The economy posited a good recovery in Europe and America. An upsurge in consumption is expected generally and more specifi cally in developed economies. The rate of unemployment will drop in those countries. The developed countries will drive growth in 2015. One interesting fact is that most developing countries that project and develop agriculture and mining activities will recover faster than any other country and create more wealth in 2015.
Ghana and Sierra Leone will be among the twenty fastest growing economies in the world in the year under review. The economies of developing countries will attract growth in 2015. The developing countries that made the list of the twenty fastest growing economies in the world are Uganda +6.2%, Cambodia +7.3%, Tanzania +7.4%, Zambia +7.6%, Panama+ 7.5%, Sri Lanka+7.5%, Uzbekistan+ 7.4%, Gambia +7.8%, Rwanda+7.6%, Congo +7.0%, Ethopia+7.9%, Angola8.8%, Laos+8,8%, Ghana+8.15%, Mozambique +8.7%, China+8.7%, Sierra Leone+9.54%, Timor Leste+20.6%, Iran+12.2% and Mongolia+13.6%.
Regrettably, Nigeria is not on the list of the twenty fastest growing economies in 2015. It is interesting to know that things will move better and faster in Ghana in 2015. It appears that Ghana will attract more direct foreign investment in the year under consideration. This is as a result of relative political stability. Ghana may improve her culture to attract more major foreign investment decisions in the New Year. It is predicted that the IMF may assist Ghana more in 2015, as Ghana is creating alternative identity to the African brand.
It is not likely that there will be huge increase in stock appreciation. But it’s important to state that the year will present a good evidence of the return of integrity to the capital market.
The US dollar will continue to enjoy a good level of appreciation in the fi rst and second quarters of the year 2015. Wealth creation is arising from the result of the efforts of government policies in the recession years. Companies that were bailed out in the 2008 recession year will show a strong evidence of stability and will contribute to the employment growth of those counties.
In England, there will be strong evidence of stable and strong banks. With more strict regulations and over regulation, more efforts will be put in place with new regulations in the developed counties. Most developing countries operating banks in those counties will fi nd things very diffi cult and it is expected that they will be on the cautious line. More regulations will be directed at them, more importantly on KYC and documentation. The integrity on money transfers to the developed counties will attract more checks. Global banking will witness very great challenges in 2015, yet the banking sector will remain one of the most attractive sectors of the economy, particularly in areas relating to security of investment.
Major wealth creation is expected from agriculture, fi shing, mining, commodity exports and tourism as it relates to the developing countries. For instance, Cocoa export in Ghana will defi nitely create more wealth for Ghana in 2015.
Life expectancy will increase and people may live longer.
The year 2015 is a foundation year for building long life. Adjustments in life expectancy are coming as a result of more awareness in living standards and health matters. As the economy recovers in 2015, issues of threat to life arising from lack of employment and low consumption pattern will begin to disappear. Except for the increased insurgency expected in the year, there is high possibility of long living.
Studies show that women have the opportunity of living longer than men. Women will live for 87 years compared to men, who are posited to live for 86 years. The interesting thing here is that the difference in projected life expectancy for men and women is only one year!
Regrettably, African countries did not make the list of the top ten countries in the world that will enjoy increased life expectancy. The highest life expectancy in the world is in Japan, with 87 years. Other countries in the high life expectancy group are China, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Austria, Cymas Island and Iceland.
The country with the lowest life expectancy is Lesotho, with 49 years. Others in the low life expectancy group include Afghanistan, Sierra Lone, Botswana, Zambia, and Chad
The good news is that Nigeria now falls in the middle of the life expectancy ladder. It appears Nigeria’s life expectancy has moved from the usual 46 years to 62 years. So relatively, Nigerians are going to be living longer. But that is if the insurgency is contained!
Where to make money in 2015
Many investors will make more investments in different sectors of the economy in 2015. There are many sectors that will attract good returns on investment. For instance, the consumption sector of the economy will grow with good profi t returns on production of food, all forms of wears and clothing materials. The development in this area is largely encouraged by the improvement in consumption patterns in the year under review as the economy recovers.
The reverse is the case in the construction industry, which will posit poor returns on investment in the year 2015, particularly in the developing countries. The recovery cannot accommodate new construction until 2017 when we begin to consolidate the gains of the recovery. Those who work this industry should expect delays in the payment of salaries, as the activities in that sector will begin to reduce even in the early months of the year. The strategic decision to take in the construction industry is for the sector to focus on the renovation aspect of construction, as that area of the business will witness reasonable activity. Government, which is the major spender in this sector, will also be confronted with cash fl ow problems and will only fund essential construction and renovation of existing properties that need concern. The level of return on investment for the construction industry in developing counties in the year under review will be very low.
The property industry will also witness low level of returns on investment. Many people will create cash from their properties. The year will witness a large proliferation of the market, as many properties will be out for sale. Prices of property will go down very drastically, as little cash will be available for many properties. 2015 is a year of opportunity to acquire properties at low prices. Those who work in the property industry may witness large volumes of activities with low cash fl ow and may experience delay in the payment of salaries. Except for those who want to acquire and take position for the future, it is not likely going to be a better year, as cash fl ow will create great impediments.
Those who will make tomorrow’s money may invest in properties today, as the gains will be immense from 2017. One area of interest this year is the business of renovation of properties. The renovation business will be up and running in the year 2015, most especially in the third and fourth quarters. For instance, most investors who offered their property for sale early in the year without success will begin to renovate the same property as the year ends with the improved cash from other businesses. Even those who did not offer their property for sale in the year will consider investment in the form of renovation for enhanced value in the last quarters of the year.
The church will make more money
Church offerings will increase by 7% in developing countries like Nigeria. As we create more wealth (at least above 5%), the possibility of thanking God more is in sight. The benefi ciary of such increase in offering is the church. The increase in offering will only be noticed in churches that have no major project that will easily consume the offering. Where a church is having many ongoing projects, especially high rise buildings or university projects, the increase may not be noticed. And the project may not witness the expected development until 2017- 2019, when it is expected that the economy will recover to the extent that such projects can be accommodated.
Offerings and tithes will give the church more money in 2015. It is also expected that the church will recover every investment made in special services in the year under review. The warning area is for the church to be more proactive in investment decision in the year under review. Areas to be avoided include major capital projects and large projects. This is because the year 2014, being the link year between recession and recovery, the year 2015 is the beginning of recovery from the recession that started in the year 2008. In the recovery year, only the foundation or concern for continuity can be established, and the year may not be able to carry additional load to the existing loads. Such projects can be postponed till the last quarter of 2016. But there is increasing indication that those projects can be well accommodated in the year 2017. What is expected for now is for the church to fund continuity in the form of increase and prompt payment of salaries to prepare for a robust work force for the years ahead.
Improved dividends may not come
Return on investments in the form of dividends may be disappointing in the year under review. But share appreciation may not be completely written off, as the year proves to be the beginning of return of integrity in the capital market.
Many investors will buy more shares in the capital market. They will be taking position for the future. As a matter of fact, this year may be the very last year for cheap prices of shares in the capital market. Most companies will stabilise, while others will simply disappear.
It is a year of Passover for corporations across the world. It is a year not to be involved in any new project but to concentrate on funding survivors. To some of us, it is a year of managing continuity in the corporate world.
There’s more money in agriculture
The US budget for Agriculture for the year 2015 is 140 billion dollars, which is about 28 trillion naira or seven full years of Nigeria’s budget as at today. The likelihood of surplus food in America this year is established. Prices of food may also be as low as ever. And with the robust dollar, the chances of exporting agric goods to the United States to make money may be a dream, except for cocoa and fi sh farming. This means more wealth from any form of agriculture engaged in this year.
Most countries that made the list of the twenty fastest growing economies in the year 2015 made it simply because of their involvement in agriculture. The reason for this scenario is in the fact that the year symbolises a foundation for improved consumption.
There appears to be a lot of improvement in the contribution of forest farming in the year 2015. So also development in fi shing will enhance revenue in the year under review.
Domestic agriculture will create wealth in 2015, to the extent of providing alternatives to those agric products that we import for consumption. Agric money makers should target those products that we import for consumption and provide alternatives to them.
Medicine will not make money in 2015 except…
It appears no form of medicine will make serious money in the year under review. The eco system will provide the opportunity for improved health. The advancements recorded in technology will reduce the amount of money doctors can make in 2015. There appears to be a shift to Research and Development in terms of money making than practical medicine.
A medical practitioner has suggested, and I agree with him, that developing countries like Nigeria will only make money in medicine if policy makers enforce and encourage health insurance. Health Insurance can guarantee good health for the citizen at reduced cost.
There appears to be great wealth to be created in Nigeria via the health insurance scheme. For example, in 2014 only 2.8% of the total population embraced the scheme, as opposed to countries like Ghana recording 60% coverage. Nigeria is still not in the loop as far as medical tourism is concerned, and it’s only when health insurance is put in place that wealth can be created, as this will reduce the movement of Nigerians abroad for medical treatment.
The media will not make money in 2015
The list of consumption priorities in 2015 does not include newspapers. It appears there is increasing demand for free information (Internet), and the media must manage how to translate free information to profi t. The strategy may include diversifying ownership, creating more equity by offering company shares for sale and investing money realised towards free distribution of newspapers for more coverage to enhance advertisement. They may also use other strategies. But it appears at least two or more newspapers may say goodnight to the market in Nigeria this year.
The public sector and the 2015 game
The challenges identifi ed in the Millennium Development Goals, MDGs, as constrains to Nigeria’s growth were not addressed in the 2015 budget, perhaps as a result of revenue decline in capital project allocation for the year. This remains a strong indicator of the country’s development.
The issues of large control of over 50 percent of revenue allocation to the 36 states and 774 local governments (autonomy) has not translated to physical development in infrastructure, health and education policies of the government at various levels. There are also serious concerns about human resource development, investment climate and agricultural policies of the government.
It does not appear that government is taking very seriously the revenue warning signals arising from unstable oil prices. For instance, the disappearance of the balance of payment surplus of 2011 to 2013 and offi cial foreign revenue decline, from almost 49 billion dollars at the end of April 2013 to 46 billion on September 19, 2013. There is also the issue of the short term portfolio capital infl ow that reportedly reached 17 billion dollars in 2012. Those infl ows have been targeting the bond market of the government.
Revenue warning signals were recorded with the decline in oil revenue excess crude oil account from 9 billion dollars in early 2013 to 5 billion dollars by midyear. This largely affected the implementation of capital projects and the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) of the government in 2014. Nigeria’s oil revenue accounts for 90% of export, which is about 75% of the nation’s budget.
The Federal Government (inclusive of SURE- P) budget before presentation in 2015 came down by about 400 billion naira, specifi cally, from 4.9 trillion naira to 4.6 trillion naira!
At 4.6 trillion, it is a projected income and should the income not be realised, there will be further depletion.
2.6 trillion is for recurrent expenditure and 0.6 trillion or 633 billion naira is the amount available for capital project, which fell from the 1.5 billion naira in the 2014 budget. The sum of 291 billion is the fi xed amount for subsidy on petroleum products. Other items of importance in the budget include the statutory transfer of 411 billion naira, debt servicing of 934 billion naira. The government will borrow the sum of 570 billion in 2015 and by the end of the year; the sum of (755 billion) would have accrued as defi cit fi nancing. In 2014, the Federal Government share from the excess crude account was 324 billion. In 2015, that amount will not be available, as the federal government projected share for this year amounts to 80 billion. SURE-P will run her operations with 102 billion as against 267 billion last year.
In 2014 SURE-P Board of Directors alone spent over one billion naira for their Board meetings! That will not be available in 2015, as the Board will now have to be contented with 50 million naira for their Board meetings and Board running costs, as allocated in the budget!
The Federal Government intends to be aggressive in non oil revenue in the year 2015. The government projected the total sum of 3.5 trillion, which is about 300 billion higher than 2014. The federal government intends to generate the revenue from the rich. For instance, the Federal Government is introducing new tariffs this year or increasing existing ones. Government identifi ed those areas of revenue sourcing in the New Year to include those who fl y business and fi rst class, who will need to pay additional surcharge as contained in this year’s budget. Specifi cally, government intends to generate the total sum of 23billion from the rich in the following ways: 10% surcharge on private jets (3.7 billion), 39% import surcharge on luxury yachts (1.6 billion), 5% surcharge on luxury cars (2.6 billion), surcharge on business and fi rst class tickets on airlines, 3% luxury surcharge on Champagnes, Wines, and Spirits (2.3 billion).
Residents of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, who have houses valued at more than 300million will pay one percent of such value in the year under the newly introduced mansion tax!
The 2008 recession budget is better than the 2015 recovery budget and that explains the many predictions of diffi – cult times ahead. For instance, more than a trillion naira was available in 2008 for capital projects. In 2015, we are going into the year with 40% of that amount.
The danger in the 2015 budget is that if the demands for the funding of insurgency increase more than one hundred billion naira, notwithstanding the allocation of 985 billion for defence and security, we may have to resort to external borrowing for such funding or forgo capital projects. Or better still, spend from the allocation from the capital budget, which is a little above 300million dollars.
Now that we are not going to spend that much for the subsidy, specifi cally that we have budgeted the sum of two hundred and ninety one billion naira for petroleum support, we ordinarily expect a reduction of the pump price of petroleum products, A litre should now cost ninety naira only. The leftover of the sum of six hundred and eighty billion naira gain from the subsidy or as widely claimed, specifi cally the six hundred and eighty billion naira saved from the subsidy will now be used for other things.
The prayer is to keep oil price at the benchmark otherwise a further depletion will create crises if the recurrent expenditure is affected or the subsidy for petroleum products is depleted.
It is left for government offi – cials to be advised on the management skills of the budget of 2005, when in January of that year, the price of oil was a little above $38 dollars. There is nothing new under the sun, as life must go on.
Beyond the accruable excess money from the crude account, the theoretical framework of the previous budgets was based on a certain benchmark. The disparity between the said benchmark and the new oil price today is contained by the increasing non oil revenue.
The main issue to be addressed is: will the private sector pay her increased taxes to government in 2015 only for it to be used to pay the salary of public servants or their travelling expenses? The only thing that can encourage payment of any kind of taxes is for us to see that those taxes are used for capital development projects, especially the provision of good infrastructure.
Regrettably, the amount estimated to be collected from non oil revenue this year is fi ve times more than the total amount government intends to spend on total capital project. This means we are now going to pay tax to fund the salaries of public servants from the private sector!
The neglect of Nigeria’s oil by the United States of America since July 2014 calls for great concern in view of the strong relationship between Nigeria and the United States. But the good news is the progressive interest developed by China and India in recent times. One is only worried about the reliability of these new interests!
In any case, there is no way it will be acceptable to anyone that there is no capital project for a population of over 160 million people or that anyone will shout Hallelujah for a year with capital project of less than three hundred million dollars for over 160 million people.
The salaries of staff will be regular, but I doubt if contractors will not look elsewhere for money beyond the Federal Government in the year under review. Government may not have the money to pay contractors and those that depend on government for money may wait beyond this year, except if such money is in the recurrent expenses. For instance, those that supply food and drinks or diesel will have their money paid faster than those that construct roads or provide infrastructures.
State governments that borrowed from the capital market may not be able to pay salaries, as some of them have signed irrevocable letters of authority to the Accountant General of the Federation, to pay their allocations to specifi c bank accounts from where the deductions of both the repayment and interest elements of their loans will be paid. Only a fraction of their monthly allocation will be made available by the concerned banks after the deduction, which may not be suffi cient to pay salaries. The increase in interest rates and reduction in revenue allocation as the oil price projection depletes, will create further problems in the affected states, such that a lot of their projects will be abandoned. No amount of propaganda will replace good governance in those affected states, such as Ondo State. So also states that borrowed from foreign banks will be confronted with depletion in the country’s currency arising from foreign exchange loss. The cumulative effects are bad governance and poor living standards!
Those who thought we should not save for the rainy day yesterday, including the World Bank, may have achieved their bad intention of making us poorer, since they discouraged us from saving. They must now be happy to see Nigeria on a dangerous fi nancial lane!
By Dr. Jimoh Ibrahim, CFR GMD, Energy Group